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Australian Outlook

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Growth

  • RBA rate hikes and higher fuel prices due to the Middle East conflict will weigh on the Australian economy
  • Households remain supported by solid labour market conditions, ongoing population growth and modest tax cuts. Savings buffers will help consumers absorb higher prices and mortgage rates that will dampen real income growth
  • Higher capex on AI & data centres and renewable energy & storage will help cushion weaker business investment across industries most heavily impacted by the rise in diesel prices
  • While the Iran conflict presents a downside risk to growth, higher prices for Australia’s LNG exports will help to soften the impact

     

     
     

Inflation

  • After slowing meaningfully since 2023, inflation picked up sharply in the second half of 2025, with headline inflation rising from 2.1% in the June quarter to 3.6% in the December quarter
  • While the move partly reflects expiring energy subsidies, underlying inflation also lifted
  • The recent momentum in underlying inflation combined with higher energy prices from the Iran war will see inflation remain above the RBA’s 2-3% target range over 2026

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